Friday, December 24, 2010
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) vs. No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)
NCAAF Football Point Spread: TCU -2.5 O/U 58.5
By: Barrett Kazmerzack of Coopers Pick CALL NOW 1-888-730-COOP
TCU ended the regular season undefeated for the second straight season,
but they were left of the BCS title game again because they are not in a BCS
conference. That is why the Horned Frogs will be playing in the Big East, yeah
that makes sense being from Texas, starting in 2012. Still, they are in the BCS
Rose Bowl and their D, which is ranked #1 in the nation will face a stiff test
against a Wisconsin offense that scored at least 70 points in 3 games.
Speaking of dropping 70 points the Badgers did just that in their season finale
beating Northwestern 70-23
Wisconsin and TCU were both 6-5 ATS in the season and while the Horned
Frogs have dominated the Mountain West Conference the past few seasons
they are only 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games against teams that have a winning
record. On top of that they have failed to cover the spread in the last 2 bowl
games they have played.
TCU and their top-ranked defense have one goal in this game and that is to
contain the Badgers and their 12th ranked rushing offense. Wisconsin features
James White (1,061 yards 14 TD), John Clay (936 yards 13 TD) and Montee
Ball (864 yards 17 TD), who can all rack up the yards on the ground. One of the
main reasons the Badgers are so good running the ball is that they have a HUGE
offensive line that has 6 players that made the All Big 10 team. TCU and their 3rd
ranked run D has a tough task in their game and they will have to deal with the
size of the mammoth Badgers’ offensive line.
Wisconsin does not have a great aerial attack, ranking 74th in the nation in pass
offense, but QB Scott Tolzien (2,300 yards 16 TD 6 INT) led the nation with a
74.3% completion percentage. Still, don’t look for him to have a big game against
TCU and their #1 ranked passing defense.
The Horned Frogs offense had the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation
averaging 43.3 points per game. They rank 8th in the nation in rushing offense
and 53rd in passing offense and their big gun is RB Ed Wesley (1,065 yards 11
TD). Wesley is not the only guy who can move the chains on the ground, as he
is joined in the backfield by RB Matthew Tucker (694 yards 7 TD). Wisconsin and
their 30th ranked run defense really has to worry about Wesley, who averaged
6.6 yards per carry on the season.
TCU can also air it out with QB Andy Dalton (2,638 yards 26 TD), who only threw
one INT in his last 4 games and he will be facing a Wisconsin pass defense that
ranks 25th in the nation. Even though he has a legit WR corps if the Badgers can
contain Wesley and force Dalton to beat them they have an advantage.
Pick: Wisconsin has only covered the spread one time in their last 4 non-
conference games and after this game it will be 5. TCU will show they should
have been mentioned in BCS title consideration by winning this game with their
defense and covering the spread.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Late Saturday night, the Runnin’ Rebels travel to Hawaii to face the 25th ranked team in the nation. UNLV is 2-10 on the season, while Hawaii is 9-3, but the key statistic to know, is that Hawaii is 10-2 ATS this season, which is by far the best ATS record in the nation. Hawaii has covered their last 6 spreads and 3 of those 6 spreads were 28 points or higher, while on the other side of the ball, UNLV is 0-6 on the road this season and has lost their last 5 games against the spread [and they were underdogs in those games by 24, 19 and 27 points]. When these two teams face off late Saturday night, only one team will be on top of their game.
UNLV is absolutely decimated for this match up with 9 players listed as doubtful and with the Runnin’ Rebels not even playing their upper classman in this game because of the head coach not happy with their performance and wanting to go with youthful talent. UNLV defeated Hawaii last year in Las Vegas by a point, and my analysis shows that Hawaii will be a extremely motivated team at home on this given night. Hawaii will be saying goodbye to 30 seniors in this game and will put a beating on a UNLV team that will already be on vacation by the time this game kicks off. Hawaii has scored 20 more points and given up 16 fewer points per game than UNLV and all of these different numbers will show its head very early in this game. UNLV is 3-13 ATS against the WAC in their last 16 games, while Hawaii 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take a play on the Rainbow Warriors here to lay a thrashing on the Runnin’ Rebels.